Will Russia Win The war in Ukraine?

 Yes and no.

The Russian military is a paper tiger. It’s strong enough to effectively defend itself and pose a threat and it’s strong enough for limited intervention but the Russian armed forces lack the strength everyone assumes they have,

The Russian military has serious flaws, all of which have been exposed in this conflict.

1: Logistical failures

Russia has an impressive rail system. Given the vast distances of Russia, a complex and advanced railroad network is required to make things work.

The Russian military has taken full advantage of this rail network to supply its armed forces. Honestly, they are very good at keeping forces supplied so long as they have their rail network to use.

But there are no railroads Russia can use in Ukraine. The VERY FIRST thing Ukrainian units did was destroy all Russian rail networks coming into Ukraine. It has to supply its men using trucks now which is much more difficult.

So supplies get brought to supply dumps on the border mostly via train by also via air. Then these supplies are loaded up onto trucks that form a convoy and drive up to the frontlines to resupply combat units.

Russia just doesn’t have enough trucks though. That may sound simple but it is true. Russia can get forces and supplies to the Ukrainian border very quickly but then struggles to get those supplies to the front. Just in this very first week of the war, we have seen this fact.

1. Dozens of advanced (and costly) Russian tanks and APCs were abandoned on the side of the road out of gas
2. Lone Russian units wandering the countryside in search of supplies
3. Whole Russian Corps paralyzed from lack of supplies, unable to remain combat effective
4. Russian troops looting Ukraine for basic necessities like food
5. Starving Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainians
6. The large Russian convoy was forced to stop multiple times due to a lack of supplies

Let’s dive deeper here. Russian units are equipped enough to operate independently for about 3–5 days. After that point, they need supplies. Experts report that Russian units cannot operate effectively more than 90 miles from a supply dump. This is why Russia HAS to take Kyiv. Kyiv with its many airports would serve as a massive supply depot for Russian forces as they advanced further into Ukraine.

Ukraine knows this and it’s why they are focusing all their manpower on protecting Kyiv. Additionally, Ukrainian special forces are attacking Convoys and Ukraine is telling its civilians to attack Convoys. Ukraine is well aware of this weakness and taking full advantage of it.

Now Russian units use what is called a “push based” logistics system compared to the US which uses a “pull-based” system.

• Pull based means that units request resupply and those supplies are sent out, meaning supplies are sent to where they are being used
• Push-based system means supplies are controlled by a central command and sent wherever the high command deems necessary. This means some units get priority over others
• This is why some Russian units are extremely mobile and active with others (like around Sumy) are dead in the water

So in summary Russia has the raw resources and they can get resources to the border using their highly advanced rail network. However, Russia lacks the trucks and tactical ability to get those supplies from the border to the front.

2: Training failures

Russia has had to keep pace with the US militarily for some time. This is very difficult considering Russia spends 10% of what the US spends on their military yearly.

So Russia cuts corners. Some Corps are undersupplied, older gear is rarely retired, stuff is produced cheaply, units rely more on cheap less technical weapons, and Russia utilizes conscripts.

Conscripts are people forced into the Army. These people are barely trained, paid only 30–40$ USD per month, and always undersupplied.

Many of the men on the front right now are conscripts and to nobody's surprise, these soldiers are surrendering quickly and extremely ineffective.

The US uses an all-volunteer army meaning everyone in the Army is there by choice. This means US troops are far more effective simply due to morale.

Now why use conscripts at all? Well, Russia believes that these men would fight hard if their homeland was threatened (like in WW2). This may be true but Russia is not threatened and instead is invading a sovereign nation for practically no reason. So these undertrained and hungry soldiers are confused, angry, and afraid which makes total sense.

3: Lack of tactical ability

Russia eventually won the Chechnyan war which I will go into more detail on some other time. However, Russia kinda lost the first Chechnyan war when Chechnyan militias retook the capital from Russian forces and forced Russia into a ceasefire.

When Putin first came to power there was a massive Chechnyan terrorist attack. Putin declared all-out war and invaded Chechnya.

This time though Putin would not repeat the mistakes of the past. He launched a slow brutal campaign where Russian units slowly moved south through Chechnya bombing every city, town, and village into oblivion.

Only when Chechnya was rubble did Russia win.

Now, this was Chechnya- an extremely small region that had a population of under 1 million at the time.

Ukraine is a large modern nation with 45 million people.

Russia hoped that a few surgical military strikes with highly trained units would cause Ukrainian forces to crumble. In reality, Ukrainians are strongly committed to defending their nation and Russia's attempts to win the conflict quickly failed.

So now Russia has to fight a large traditional war. They have to do this with all the problems I listed above. Unlike Chechnya, Russia cannot just level entire cities. Doing so would almost certainly spur the international community to military action.

So undersupplied and undertrained Russian forces now have to deal with determined defenders.

---

Russia hasn’t really lost any traditional battles or anything. Russian units have been pushed back on some fronts and faced stiff losses but the Russian military is still advancing forward and has made some gains in the prior week.

However, Russia has lost a lot of men so far in the fighting. If we believe Russian reports (and we shouldn’t) about 500 Russian soldiers have been killed just this week. Compare that to the US invasion of Iraq where 197 Coalition soldiers died in the first 6 weeks of fighting.

If we believe other reports- perhaps as many as 4,000 Russians have died fighting already.

What has Russia gained in exchange for all those dead bodies? 1 minor city in the South.

Russia has a long way to go to conquer Ukraine and with Ukrainian resistance being what it is- it may end up costing Russia more than they can afford.